University Of Tehran Press Pollution 2383-451X 2 4 2016 10 01 Modeling spatial distribution of Tehran air pollutants using geostatistical methods incorporate uncertainty maps 375 386 58304 10.7508/pj.2016.04.001 EN Mansour Halimi Department of Climatology, TarbiatModares University, Tehran, Iran Manuchehr Farajzadeh Department of Climatology, TarbiatModares University, Tehran, Iran Zahra Zarei Department of Climatology, Lorestan University, Iran Journal Article 2015 11 09 The estimation of pollution fields, especially in densely populated areas, is an important application in the field of environmental science due to the significant effects of air pollution on public health. In this paper, we investigate the spatial distribution of three air pollutants in Tehran’s atmosphere: carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), and atmospheric particulate matters less than 10 <em>μm</em> in diameter (PM10<em>μm</em>). To do this, we use four geostatistical interpolation methods: Ordinary Kriging, Universal Kriging, Simple Kriging, and Ordinary Cokriging with Gaussian semivariogram, to estimate the spatial distribution surface for three mentioned air pollutants in Tehran’s atmosphere. The data were collected from 21 air quality monitoring stations located in different districts of Tehran during 2012 and 2013 for 00UTC. Finally, we evaluate the Kriging estimated surfaces using three statistical validation indexes: mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE) that can be divided into systematic and unsystematic errors (RMSES, RMSEU), and D-Willmot. Estimated standard errors surface or uncertainty band of each estimated pollutant surface was also developed. The results indicated that using two auxiliary variables that have significant correlation with CO, the ordinary Cokriginga scheme for CO consistently outperforms all interpolation methods for estimating this pollutant and simple Kriging is the best model for estimation of NO₂ and PM10. According to optimal model, the highest concentrations of PM10 are observed in the marginal areas of Tehran while the highest concentrations of NO₂ and CO are observed in the central and northern district of Tehran. https://jpoll.ut.ac.ir/article_58304_4cac3d8380cd8c357716f88e94e32c67.pdf