Modeling and Forecasting Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Fossil Fuel Combustion in Pakistan Using ARIMA Model: Implications for Climate Change

Document Type : Original Research Paper

Authors

COMSATS University Islamabad (CUI), Abbottabad Campus University Road, Tobe Camp, Abbottabad, Pakistan

10.22059/poll.2025.388580.2780

Abstract

Greenhouse gases emissions, notably CO2, into atmosphere has driven profound climate change and amplified global warming. This phenomenon not only compromises environmental integrity but also poses a threat to sustainable development, giving rise to a multitude of environmental challenges. Despite the pressing need to mitigate climate change, there is a lack of comprehensive forecasting models specifically tailored to predict CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion in Pakistan. Therefore, emissions data of 1990-2020 was obtained from IEA (International Energy Agency) to forecast future increase in CO2  using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model for forecasting CO2 and assessing the implications of forecasted CO2 emissions on climate change. ARIMA model emphasizes on autocorrelations in time series and higher accuracy compared to other models. Exact order for “p” and “q” was determined using autocorrelation function (ACF) and partial autocorrelation function (PACF) to specify the MA (q) and AR (p) order in ARIMA forecasting. ARIMA (2,1,2), ARIMA (6,1,2) and ARIMA (10,1,10) were finalized to analyze the data. Among these ARIMA (6,1,2) was found suitable to forecast CO2 emissions. Analysis of the data from 2021-2030 confirmed 220.117 Mt CO2 rise by 2030. This represents a 9.188% increase in CO2 emissions over the forecast period, highlighting a significant growth rate compared to the initial increase observed in 2021. This increase will not only disturb the environment, but it will also put serious implications on social and economic development of Pakistan. This study will help the policy makers and other stakeholders to take proactive actions and sustainable practices to balance economic development and environmental ministration.

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Main Subjects

References

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Pollution
Volume 11, Issue 4
October 2025
Pages 1292-1305

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