Cancer Risk Assessment and Statistical Modeling of Particulate Matter and Toxic Metal Exposure in Air due to Metro Train Project in Lahore, Pakistan

Document Type : Original Research Paper

Authors

Institute of Environmental Engineering and Research, University of Engineering and Technology, Lahore, Pakistan 54890

10.22059/poll.2025.381330.2519

Abstract

The air quality of metropolitan cities of developing countries is deteriorating rapidly. In Pakistan, Lahore city is a significant development hub (construction and industrialization). The current study deals with the quality of air due to anthropogenic activities. The sampling was conducted for four months during the Orange Line Metro Train construction. The parameters are particulate matter, toxic metals (Cu, Pb, Fe, Cr, Mn, and Cd), and anions (Sulphates and Chlorides). The analysis of these pollutants was performed using standard methods. The descriptive statistics showed that the particulate matter had the highest concentration (38.31 mg/m3) while the lowest was for copper (1948 µg/m3). All parameters showed values above any guideline values of any agency or country. The parameters showed positively skewed data with symmetrical (toxic metals) and no-symmetrical (PM, Cl-1, and SO4-2) distribution. The ANOVA showed the Fcrit<F, which means the parameters have some correlation. Pearson correlation values were between 0.3 and 0.7, which indicates a moderate correlation. The enrichment (EF) factor showed high anthropogenic activities with a maximum EF value for Cd (7735). The PCA and CA showed construction work, wind-blown minerals, industrialization, and roadside dust. The risk analysis showed that the HQ and CR showed the following trend: Pb>Cu>Mn>Cd>Ni>Cr and Cr>Ni>Cd>Pb, respectively. The CI showed that 100 people/10,000 population were exposed to cancer risk, while HI (426) showed a severe threat. The results showed that the air quality of Lahore city is inferior and needs immediate government attention.

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