Relationships between Ambient Air Pollution, Meteorological Parameters and Respiratory Mortality in Mashhad, Iran: a Time Series Analysis

Document Type : Original Research Paper


1 Department of Environmental Science, Faculty of Environmental Science, Kheradgarayn Motahar Institute of Higher Education, P.O.Box, 9177934955,Mashhad, Iran

2 Environmental Health Engineer, North Khorasan University of Medical Sciences, Iran

3 Natural Resources Engineering-Environmental Pollution, Department of Environmental Science, Faculty of Environmental Science, Kheradgarayn Motahar Institute of Higher Education, Mashhad, Iran

4 Urban Services of Mashhad Municipality, Environmental Pollutants Monitoring Center, Mashhad, Iran

5 Environmental Health Engineering, Faculty of Health, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran

6 Department of Statistics, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran

7 Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Islamic Azad University, West Tehran Branch, Tehran, Iran


The time series model has been exploited to estimate the relationship between meteorological variables and air in Mashhad with respiratory mortality. For this purpose, data on respiratory mortality was based on data recorded on March 2014 to 2015. In order to investigate the effect of meteorological variables and air pollution values on respiratory mortality, the Box- Jenkins time series model has been utilized. Moreover, the effect of age and seasons on the number of respiratory deaths was assessed by the linear regression and ANOVA test. The fit of the final model to determining the monthly relationship between meteorological variables and air pollutants with the number of respiratory mortalities is a (1,0,2) ARIMA. In the monthly survey, temperature and rainfall have the inverse relationship and pressure has the direct relationship with the average of 7.4, 3.2, and 17.42 on the respiratory mortality. It was also found direct relationship between the mortality from respiratory diseases and CO and O3 and inverse relationship with SO2, NO2 and PM2.5 pollutants with an average of 67.40, 17.42, 17.89, 6.83, and 0.68, respectively. Also, the results of this study indicate that older people are more likely to be affected by the inappropriate status of air quality by 0.37%. The results showed a significant difference between respiratory mortality in different seasons of the year, and the highest number of deaths occurred in the winter.


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