A Simulation to Assess the Probability of the Spread of Radioactive Materials from the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant using the HYSPLIT Model

Document Type : Original Research Paper


1 Department of Radiation Application, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran

2 Department of Nuclear Engineering, Faculty of Sciences and Modern Technologies, Graduate University of Advanced Technology, Kerman, Iran


Today, world pollution is increasing, and many pollutants such as radioactive elements enter to environment through human activity contaminants play an essential role in human life and health. Therefore, the examination of models for dispersion caused by radioactive substances is an important issue. This article is a simulation study of the hypothetical scenario of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) in Ukraine, which is one of the NPPs in Europe. This scenario includes the occurrence of an accident in the power plant that entry of pollutants to environment and creates an environmental disaster. The simulation of this scenario was done using the Hyspli4 )Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory) model and NOAA website data of ZNPP (include the wind information, temperature, humidity, and atmospheric pressure in different spatial and temporal scales) to predict and deal with pollutants. The simulation was conducted in the first week of April 2023 for 131 I and 137Cs elements, which are important elements that come out of the power plant and cause many problems. The results show the highest annual dose and concentration are 4.6 mSv/year and 2.7E+06 Bq.s/m3 respectively. It also shows that in the event of pollution, the entry of contaminated materials into the Dnieper River and the western edge of the blackened sea will bring a great disaster. Also, the eastern and northeastern regions of Ukraine, especially Kharkiv and the western borders of Russia, lead to pollution that causes radiation hazard, so the news should be shared with everyone before an actual incident occurs.


Main Subjects

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