Forecasting and Seasonal Investigation of PM10 Concentration Trend: a Time Series and Trend Analysis Study in Tehran

Document Type : Original Research Paper


1 Graduate Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

2 Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran


In this study, a multitude of statistical tools were used to examine PM10 concentration trends and their seasonal behavior from 2015 to 2021 in Tehran. The results of the integrated analysis have led to a better understanding of current PM10 trends which may be useful for future management policies. The Kruskal – Wallis test indicated the significant impact of atmospheric phenomena on the seasonal fluctuations of PM10. The seasonal decomposition of PM10 time series was conducted for better analysis of trends and seasonal oscillations. The seasonal Mann-Kendall test illustrated the significant possibility of a monotonic seasonal trend of PM10 (p = 0.026) while showing its negative slope simultaneously (Sen = -1.496). The forecasting procedure of PM10 until 2024 comprised 15 time series models which were validated by means of 8 statistical criteria. The model validation results indicated that ARIMA (0,1,2) was the most satisfactory case for predicting the future trend of PM10. This model estimated the concentration of PM10 to reach approximately 79.04 (µg/m3) by the end of 2023 with a 95% confidence interval of 51.38 – 107.42 (µg/m3). Overall, it was concluded that the use of the aforementioned analytical tools may help decision-makers gain a better insight into future forecasts of ambient airborne particulate matter.


Main Subjects

Abhilash, M. S. K., Thakur, A., Gupta, D., & Sreevidya, B. (2018). Time series analysis of air pollution in Bengaluru using ARIMA model. In Ambient Communications and Computer Systems (pp. 413-426). Springer, Singapore.
Amini, H., Hosseini, V., Schindler, C., Hassankhany, H., Yunesian, M., Henderson, S. B., & Künzli, N. (2017). Spatiotemporal description of BTEX volatile organic compounds in a Middle Eastern megacity: Tehran study of exposure prediction for environmental health research (Tehran SEPEHR). Environmental pollution, 226, 219-229.
Amini, H., Taghavi-Shahri, S. M., Henderson, S. B., Naddafi, K., Nabizadeh, R., & Yunesian, M. (2014). Land use regression models to estimate the annual and seasonal spatial variability of sulfur dioxide and particulate matter in Tehran, Iran. Science of the total environment, 488, 343-353.
Amini, H., Taghavi-Shahri, S. M., Henderson, S. B., Naddafi, K., Nabizadeh, R., & Yunesian, M. (2014). Land use regression models to estimate the annual and seasonal spatial variability of sulfur dioxide and particulate matter in Tehran, Iran. Science of the total environment, 488, 343-353.
Arhami, M., Shahne, M. Z., Hosseini, V., Haghighat, N. R., Lai, A. M., & Schauer, J. J. (2018). Seasonal trends in the composition and sources of PM2. 5 and carbonaceous aerosol in Tehran, Iran. Environmental pollution, 239, 69-81.
Bahari, R. A., Abbaspour, R. A., & Pahlavani, P. (2014, November). Prediction of PM2. 5 concentrations using temperature inversion effects based on an artificial neural network. In The ISPRS international conference of Geospatial information research (Vol. 15, p. 17).
Banerjee, T., Singh, S. B., & Srivastava, R. K. (2011). Development and performance evaluation of statistical models correlating air pollutants and meteorological variables at Pantnagar, India. Atmospheric Research, 99(3-4), 505-517.
Bayat, R., Ashrafi, K., Motlagh, M. S., Hassanvand, M. S., Daroudi, R., Fink, G., & Künzli, N. (2019). Health impact and related cost of ambient air pollution in Tehran. Environmental research, 176, 108547.
Daly, A., & Zannetti, P. (2007). Air pollution modeling–An overview. Ambient air pollution, 15-28.
Dedoussi, I.C., Eastham, S.D., Monier, E. et al. Premature mortality related to United States cross-state air pollution. Nature 578, 261–265 (2020).
Dehhaghi, S., & Rashidi, Y. (2022). Evaluation of air quality standard compliance by means of statistical distribution modeling: a study in Tehran. International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, 19(12), 12235-12248.
Delavar, M. R., Gholami, A., Shiran, G. R., Rashidi, Y., Nakhaeizadeh, G. R., Fedra, K., & Hatefi Afshar, S. (2019). A novel method for improving air pollution prediction based on machine learning approaches: a case study applied to the capital city of Tehran. ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information, 8(2), 99.
Dominici, F., Sheppard, L., & Clyde, M. (2003). Health effects of air pollution: a statistical review. International Statistical Review, 71(2), 243-276.
Faridi, S., Shamsipour, M., Krzyzanowski, M., Künzli, N., Amini, H., Azimi, F., ... & Naddafi, K. (2018). Long-term trends and health impact of PM2. 5 and O3 in Tehran, Iran, 2006–2015. Environment international, 114, 37-49.
Habibi, F., Asadi, E., Sadjadi, S. J., & Barzinpour, F. (2017). A multi-objective robust optimization model for site-selection and capacity allocation of municipal solid waste facilities: A case study in Tehran. Journal of cleaner production, 166, 816-834.
Hosseini, V., & Shahbazi, H. (2016). Urban air pollution in Iran. Iranian Studies, 49(6), 1029-1046.
Jaafari, J., Naddafi, K., Yunesian, M., Nabizadeh, R., Hassanvand, M. S., Ghozikali, M. G., ... & Yaghmaeian, K. (2020). Characterization, risk assessment and potential source identification of PM10 in Tehran. Microchemical Journal, 154, 104533.
Khajavi, A., Khalili, D., Azizi, F., & Hadaegh, F. (2019). Impact of temperature and air pollution on cardiovascular disease and death in Iran: a 15-year follow-up of Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study. Science of the Total Environment, 661, 243-250.
Krzyzanowsk, M., & Schwela, D. (1999). Patterns of air pollution in developing countries. In Air pollution and health (pp. 105-113). Academic Press.
Kumar, U., & Jain, V. K. (2010). ARIMA forecasting of ambient air pollutants (O3, NO, NO2 and CO). Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 24(5), 751-760.
Leili, M., Naddafi, K., Nabizadeh, R., Yunesian, M., & Mesdaghinia, A. (2008). The study of TSP and PM10 concentration and their heavy metal content in central area of Tehran, Iran. Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health, 1(3), 159-166.
Modarres, R., & Dehkordi, A. K. (2005). Daily air pollution time series analysis of Isfahan City. International Journal of Environmental Science & Technology, 2(3), 259-267.
Mokoena, K. K., Ethan, C. J., Yu, Y., Shale, K., & Liu, F. (2019). Ambient air pollution and respiratory mortality in Xi’an, China: a time-series analysis. Respiratory research, 20(1), 1-9.
Ravishankara, A. R., David, L. M., Pierce, J. R., & Venkataraman, C. (2020). Outdoor air pollution in India is not only an urban problem. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117(46), 28640-28644.
Shahbazi, H., Reyhanian, M., Hosseini, V., & Afshin, H. (2016). The relative contributions of mobile sources to air pollutant emissions in Tehran, Iran: An emission inventory approach. Emission control science and technology, 2(1), 44-56.
Torkashvand, J., Jafari, A.J., Hopke, P.K. et al. Airborne particulate matter in Tehran’s ambient air. J Environ Health Sci Engineer 19, 1179–1191 (2021).
Yunesian, M., Rostami, R., Zarei, A., Fazlzadeh, M., & Janjani, H. (2019). Exposure to high levels of PM2. 5 and PM10 in the metropolis of Tehran and the associated health risks during 2016–2017. Microchemical Journal, 150, 104174.